Thursday, January 04, 2007

Political Report: Week of January 3rd, 2007

Outlook

* Gerald Ford funeral magnifies the internal disconnect in the Republican Party.
* Bush decision to implement Iraq troop surge could mark the figurative end of his presidency.
* Democrats first 100 hours may not be enough to satisfy the extreme Left wing of their Party.
* Giuliani’s potential campaign takes a huge hit…from itself.
* Saddam’s execution will hurt anti-terrorism efforts for a significant amount of time.

Detail

1. Gerald Ford’s death left many in the Republican Party yearning for his centrist approach to politics. The battle rages on between the social, religious Conservatives, the Ronald Reagan wing, and the fiscal, traditional Conservatives, the Barry Goldwater and Gerald Ford wing. Ford was never a fan of Reagan and like Goldwater, he was suspicious of the direction of the Republican Party after Reagan’s election in 1980. For the GOP to see any success in the future, they will need to move to the political center.

2. A troop surge in Iraq will put President Bush out on a weak limb by himself. If the violence in Iraq continues after more American troops are introduced, which most military analysts say will be the case, Bush will see any support he has remaining disappear in a matter of months. With Donald Rumsfeld gone, military success in Iraq has become Bush’s and VP Dick Cheney’s last stand.

3. While boosting the minimum wage and supporting stem cell research will most likely be legislative victories for the incoming House Democrats, the extreme Left wing will be pressing for significant action on Iraq, specifically with the Bush administration planning for a troop surge soon. Many of those extremists, and some moderates, will soon begin calling for Democrats to de-fund the war. Since that won’t happen, Speaker Pelosi will have no choice but to ramp up investigations into the Bush administration’s war policy in the hopes of appeasing her Party’s Left wing.

4. Rudy Giuliani’s misplaced dossier shows just how vulnerable his own advisors think a presidential campaign would be for him. While his political positions will be enough fodder for his opponents, it’s the personal and business issues that may be the most damaging. Multiple marriages and divorces will not play well in the heartland and his relationship with the disgraced Bernard Kerik will be investigated thoroughly. Rudy may want to bow out gracefully before it gets really ugly.

5. The bungled Saddam Hussein execution and the video afterward will have a profound negative effect on the Iraq war specifically and anti-terrorism efforts generally. Sunni tensions have been inflamed throughout the region and it is likely that high profile Shiite leaders will be targeted for kidnapping and execution, and surely those will make their way onto the internet. The dueling execution videos have begun.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Giuliani has no chance at the republican nomination.

3:22 PM  

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