Losing Female Voters A Troubling Sign For GOP

The Washington Post reports today that "security moms", who were an integral part of GOP victories in 2002 and 2004, are becoming increasingly concerned about the war in Iraq, the economy and the direction President Bush and the GOP are taking the country.

While there is great concern among this important bloc of voters about the threat of terrorism, the usual electoral advantage that has materialized because of the terror threat does not seem to be coming to fruition this time around for the GOP. The study, which was conducted by the Pew Research Center, shows that by a 50 percent to 38 percent margin, married women with children are more inclined to support Democrats than Republicans in upcoming Congressional elections.

Women still believe that national security is the issue of the day, however many are now starting to see the Iraq war as a distraction and a source for more problems rather than a solution. Additional Pew Research shows that about twice as many moderate and liberal Republicans as conservative Republicans favor bringing U.S. troops home as soon as possible (35% vs. 18%).

Not everyone believes that security moms are really the voting bloc they're cracked up to be. Karen M. Kaufmann of the University of Maryland writes in the July 2006 issue of the American Political Science Association that the myth of security moms was seized upon by the media, but it isn't true at all. Her data show that in 2000, 50 percent of mothers with children at home voted for Bush as opposed to 49 percent that voted for Bush in 2004.

As with polls, the only one that ultimately matters is the one on election day. Pre-election polls and exit polls in 2004 showed a much closer Presidential election that the final tally did not support. There is still a great deal of time for the GOP to motivate it's base and get them out on election day. The Democratic base is already mobilized. The question remains if moderate Republicans and Independents will give the Democrats the push they need to deliver the tsunami that so many polls seem to be pointing to.